The current research examines the relative effectiveness of universities and new program types using the diverse market in Texas. The authors examine program effectiveness through a framework integrating certificate pathways, organizational goals, and market incentives. The authors found that independent nonprofits have positive effects on student performance that are not explained by teacher sorting or program selectivity, and these effects only occur in math. Furthermore, independent nonprofits perform well with most high-risk populations but have no advantage with Black students, no presence on rural schools, and negative effects, and designated special education (SPED) students. The authors argue that these findings suggest that policy makers should proceed with caution when advocating for expanding or limiting any particular program type.